CPDF I Certification . . .

You can achieve practical understanding of demand forecasing principles and best practices by completing a 90 hour curriculum on the Principles and Best Practices in Demand Forecasting; 15 hours for an Instructor-led, computer-based hands-on  Workshop followed by six (6) self-paced, e-learning computer workshops combined with self study.

To register for this industrial training workshop, visit the workshop registration page.

To register for the e-learning workshop exercises for certification after you have completed the CPDF I  Training Workshop, complete  e-Learning Registration form.

Day 1

Time

Instructor-led Hands-on Workshop

  8:30 Registration

 

9:00 AM 

Part 1 - Demand Forecasting in the Supply Chain

  • What is Demand Forecasting?
  • Demand Forecasting and the evolution of the supply chain
  • Who will use the forecast and what are their data needs?
  • Demand Forecasting as a structured process - the PEER model

 

 

Workshop 1: How to Track Drivers of Demand for New and Existing Products/Services

 

 

Part II - Framing the Demand Forecasting Function

  • Data exploration and predictive visualization - learning from actual examples
  • Judging the quality of data
  • Dealing with unusual events and outliers

 

 

Coffee/Tea Break

   

Part II - Framing the Demand Forecasting Function(Continued)

  • What are forecasting models?
  • Quantitative vs. qualitative approaches Evaluating forecasts and forecasting models
  • Demand integration and reconciling the final forecast

 

 

Computer Workshop 2: Exploring Trend and Seasonal Variation in Time Series. Cases: Consumer Product and Tourism Industry

 

 

Part III - How To Use Components of a Time Series

  • Moving averages for smoothing kinks out of data
  • Contrasting between centered and uncentered moving averages
  • What is the Ratio-to-Moving Average (RMA) method?
  • Creating additive and multiplicative seasonal factors
  • Creating projections with a decomposition technique
    Readout of Workshops 1 and 2

 

PM

Lunch

   

Computer Workshop 3: Creating Projections and seasonal adjustments with the RMA Decomposition Technique. Cases: Automobile and Energy Industry

 

 

Part IV - Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing Models

  • Why use Naive forecasting techniques
  • Types of smoothing weights
  • Forecasting profiles for exponential smoothing
  • Applying univariate time series techniques
  • Handling special events with exponential smoothing models
  • Creating scenario forecasts
  • Product life cycle and technique selection 

 

 

Computer Workshop 4: Forecasting With Short-term Time Series Models. Cases: Ice Cream and Tourism Industry 

 

 

Coffee/Tea Break

 

 

Computer Workshop 4 (cont'd):  Creating Rolling Forecasts with Hold-out Samples

 

 

Readout of Workshops 3 and 4

Day 2

 

 

  8:30 AM Recap of Day 1

 

 

Part V -   How To Measure Forecast Accuracy

  • Basis of accuracy measurement: bias and precision
  • Forecasting errors vs. forecasting accuracy
  • Overcoming the myth of the MAPE
  • Goodness of fit vs. forecasting performance
  • Costs of inaccurate forecasts
  • Waterfall charts and accuracy measurement 

 

 

Computer Workshop 5:  Root Cause Analysis and Exception Reporting. Case: Motorcycle Industry

 

 

Coffee/Tea Break

 

 

Part VI - Graphical Tools for Forecast Process Improvement

  • Ladder charts for monitoring forecast model results
  • Prediction-realization diagram and the business cycle
  • Prediction intervals and predictive visualization for time series forecasts
  • Creating tracking signals - Trigg's tracking signal

 

 

Computer Workshop 6:  How to Visually Track and Monitor Forecasting Performance

 

Readout of Workshops 5 and 6

 

PM

Lunch

 

 

Part VII - Practical Uses of Forecast Modeling

  • Marketing - advertising and promotion planning
  • Sales - pricing and easticities
  • Operations -  safety stock and inventory planning
  • Finance - rolling forecasts for budgeting

 

 

Computer Workshop 7: Using a Time-Phased Order Forecasting Model for Replenishment Planning

 

 

Coffee/Tea Break

   

Part VIII - Implementing a Demand Forecasting Process With an Integrated Business Planning Process

  • Successful implementation strategies
  • Integration with the supply chain
  • Sales & Operations (S&OP) planning
  • Best-in-breed demand management 
  • The GLOBL Case: Simulating a Forecasting Work Cycle

 

 
  • Review and Open Questions
  • Workshop Takeaways
  • Closing Remarks

After you complete this two-day instructor-led workshop, and wish to earn CPDF I certification,, you will need to complete six (6) self-paced computer workshop exercises, re-enforcing the management principles, forecasting methods and best practices used by demand forecasters worldwide under the direction of a CPDF Team Leader. Upon completion of this phase your CPDF designation will help you stay competitive while enhancing your professionalism and career opportunities.

To register for the e-learning workshop exercises for certification, complete e-Learning Registration form.

Workshop

Self-paced, e-Learning Computer Workshops for CPDF I Certification

8

Identifying Users for Demand Forecasts


9

Investigating Drivers of Demand for New and Existing Products/Services


10

Characterizing Demand Variation

11

Creating a Seasonal Decomposition and Using Seasonal Adjustments

12

Using ETS State Space Models for Trend/Seasonal Forecasting

13

Analyzing Forecasting Performance with Outlier-Resistant Forecast Error Measurements
 
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